Still moving

Still adjusting to the new place and selling the old place. Also spending time on medical matters. 

Planning to Move

No time to draft a blog this month (or next probably).

Systems surprises

This month’s blog is a collection of circumstances where you might be surprised at how something reacts -- even though there are well documented reasons why it did what it did.  In nearly every case I'll let Wikipedia or other web pages provide the details.

A warning and disclaimer -- much of the theories mentioned here can make you depressed and unwilling to act.  Please take these theories and dilute with comforting memes from your social network of choice.

Lets start with Le Chatelier's principle [ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier%27s_principle]. Gall, in his book, "Systemantics" expressed this succinctly as "The system kicks back".  The original form is about chemical systems where a collection of chemicals is in equilibrium.  Any attempt to move the equilibrium by changing one factor is cancelled out by changes in the other factors.  The action is balanced by the reaction --  Newton's Third Law [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_laws_of_motion#Newton.27s_third_law]. So if you poke a complicated system don't be surprised if it pokes back.  

Another variation is the Flare-back fallacy noted by Gerry and Daniella Weinberg's example of killing a pest that is either predator or prey that is following Volterra equation [pages 301-302&317  "The design of stable systems", Wiley 1979].  Here when you (for example) kill most of the predators, then, shortly you get a plague of their prey, followed by an explosion of the predators, etc.  You get a boom-bust pattern of oscillation.  This example is only the simplest of biological surprises I have read about or experienced where A encourages B that leads to C,,, Working these out is essential if you want to solve some problems. An example from social systems is Forrester's urban dynamics [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Dynamics#Urban_dynamics ] which models a typical city or town and predicts that attempts to solve social problems can make it worse. A version of this argument was used as a campaign argument in a recent mayoral election -- providing housing for the homeless attracts more homeless into the town. 

The theme of the obvious solution making a bigger problem turns up in software development. Brookes's law: adding people to a late project puts it further behind. This is well known and has been recently confirmed in all but the smallest projects by Capers Jones [ http://www.drdobbs.com/architecture-and-design/programming-laws-and-reality-do-we-know/240166164 ]. Brookes points out that when people are added to a project the existing time has to bring them up to speed.  They may need to learn the team's tool-set and organization.  But the also have to learn the domain knowledge that the team has discovered so far. All this explanation and training will slow down the rate of development and put the project further behind.  

The following system surprises were all in an article in the New Scientist magazine [ "Less is More", Justin Mullins, pages 30-33, 18 jan 2014 ]. In sports loosing the best player in a team can increase the chance of winning if it makes the plays less predictable.  This is from Brian skinner in 2009.  Then we have Braess's paradox [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess%27s_paradox ] which appears in traffic networks in both theory and practice. Dietrich Braess discovered that sometimes adding a new faster road can lead to delays if every body chooses it. This is an example of "Tragedy of the commons" https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons] where large numbers of optimal choices by individuals leads to the whole system performing worse. This effect has been observed in reverse: removing a popular road has lead to a smoother and better flow of traffic in large cities.  To be technical: the Nash equilibrium is not optimal. The article has some other examples. Dirk Witthart researching power grids discovered that adding a new power line could reduce the stability of a power grid. However he also discovered an exception: adding a parallel link to a fully loaded link is safe. Similarly in 2013 Israel people observed that adding nodes to a wireless network lead to reduced service. 

Further reading and research. 

 Mencken's Law: To every problem there is a simple obvious solution that just doesn't work. 

 Parkinson's Law: Work expands to fill the available time.

Haiku/Senryu

I have this time machine

Time always flies --

While I stare at the screen!

The Alexandria Quartet by Lawrence Durrell

I have read this collection of four novels many times.   The Wikipedia is a useful starting point http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Quartet.
I have written 2 or 3 essays about them, and imitated them once… So this time I have drawn a diagram of them.

Blow-ups Happen super-spoiler

In the 1960's Robert A. Heinlein published a book called "The Man Who Sold the Moon". One story in the book helped select my career path. It was called "Blow-ups happen". In one scene a consultant "Lentz" hands a problem to the director of the breeder reactor: 

"Lentz had assigned symbols to a great number of factors, some social, some psychological, some physical, some economic. He had thrown them together into a structural relationship using the symbols of calculus of statement." 

The director is told to "solve it" and uses a pencil and paper to solve the problem. Could there be a "calculus of statement"? 

The first thing is that we don't have the formalized knowledge of psychology and economics that is current in Heinlein's story. But I have observed that some thing very like the process mentioned in the story occurs when Boolean Algebra is used to solve puzzles.  For example consider "The Lunch Problem" described by  Galen Harris Valle in his paper "Teaching English in Asia" (p85 of "Speaking" by Roger Gower, OUP).

Problem

(01): Anne, Betty and Cindy order either a cup of coffee or a cup of tea each after lunch.

(02): If Anne has coffee then Betty orders the drink that Cindy orders.

(03): If Betty orders coffee then Anne orders the drink that Cindy does not order.

(04): If Cindy orders tea then Anne orders the drink that Betty orders.

  Who orders the SAME drink after lunch?  Which drink?, and how do you know?

Solution using Boolean Algebra

Additive notation for Boolean Algebra

        P+Q for "either P or Q ".

PQ means "P and Q"

~P means "not P"

0 means false and 1 means true.

if P then Q becomes ~P + Q.

P = Q becomes PQ + (~P) (~Q).

Symbols

a::=Anne orders coffee.

b::=Betty orders coffee.

c::=Cindy orders coffee.

~a::=Anne orders tea.

~b::=Betty orders tee.

~c::=Cindy orders tea.

Axioms

(2): if  a then  b =  c.

~a  +  b c +  ~b ~c.

(3): if  b then  ~a =  c.

~b +  a ~c + ~a  c.

(4:) if ~c then  a =  b.

c +  a b + ~a  ~b.

So the expression of the problem is the conjunction of the three axioms:

 (~a  +  b c +  ~b ~c)( ~b +  a ~c + ~a  c)( c +  a b + ~a  ~b),

Solution

Multiply the first two factors out (distributive laws)

(~a ( ~b +  a ~c + ~a  c) + ( ~b +  a ~c + ~a  c) b c + ( ~b +  a ~c + ~a  c) ~b ~c)( c +  a b + ~a  ~b),

(~a  ~b + ~a  a ~c + ~a ~a  c +  ~b b c +  a ~c b c + ~a  c b c +  ~b ~b ~c +  a ~c ~b ~c + ~a  c ~b ~c)( c +  a b + ~a  ~b),

Simplify using ~P P = 0 and P P = P.

(~a  ~b + ~a  c  + ~a  b c +  ~b ~c +  a ~b ~c)( c +  a b + ~a  ~b),

Multiply out the two factors  (distributive laws)

(~a  ~b + ~a  c  + ~a  b c +  ~b ~c +  a ~b ~c) c + (~a  ~b + ~a  c  + ~a  b c +  ~b ~c +  a ~b ~c) a b + (~a  ~b + ~a  c  + ~a  b c +  ~b ~c +  a ~b ~c)~a  ~b

Simplify using ~P P = 0 and P P = P.

~a  ~b c + ~a  c  + ~a  b c + ~a  ~b + ~a  ~b c + ~a  ~b ~c,

Extract the common factor ~a ( Anne orders tea).

~a ( ~b c +  c  +  b c +  ~b +  ~b c +  ~b ~c),

Simplify using PQ+P =P (Absorbative law)

~a ( ~b c +  c  +  b c +  ~b),

And again

~a ( c +  ~b).

Conclusion

Anne always orders tea and either Cindy orders coffee or Betty orders tea.

You can verify this result by using Prolog, and/or tables,  or even Karnaugh maps.

Autumn wind

Like leaves in the wind,

My thoughts are free of the tree. 

I must clean the pool. 

Now what?

Developing the last posting was not like typing a daily item using vi. Here http://cse.csusb.edu/dick/blog.html is a link to that old blog. Using an iPod means it is slower. But it checks spelling. The Blogger app makes it possible to render and so review drafts. It feels more like writing reviews for Computer Reviews -- http://www.computingreviews.com/browse/browse_reviewers.cfm?reviewer_id=115728

So it is slower and better considered than the ASCII blog. 

On the other hand getting a good picture takes time. And Blogger on iPod does not automatically recognize typed URLs and make them into links. 

My plan is to post something monthly using my iPod and its Blogger app. 

Future topics: the logic of Parking, syllogisms, preparing for the first class, etc.. 

Favorite Internet Comics

On my first trip to the USA, to a key conference in Boston in the late 1960s I was able to buy some books that I couldn't find in the UK.  They were comic books: BC, Wizard of Id, Peanuts. Nowadays I turn to the comics page in the Sunday newspaper before anything else. I have a small collection of comic books. I start most days looking at Internet comics like those listed below.  Disclaimer: the posting schedules are as of September 2013 and will change. 

What comics am I missing?  Comments with your regular comic fixes, please.

Shlock Mercenary http://www.schlockmercenary.com/ is a space opera comic with a new page posted every day of the week. 

Quantum Vibe http://www.quantumvibe.com/ posts the adventures of a young woman in the Solar System of the Future and posts on weekdays -- but Cons and life altering events tend to interrupt the story line at times. 

XKCD http://xkcd.com/ is schematic, inventive, humorous, famous, and unpredictable. It posts on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Friday and is one of the few comics to appear in news stories on Slashdot. 

From the UK we have Gunnerskrigg Court http://www.gunnerkrigg.com/index2.php which is set in a private boarding school. The world is split between the technological court and the magical forrest. There is an Alchemy theme. Excellent color. Intriguing characters with secrets that slowly come to light as characters develop. New material appears late (Pacific time) on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. 

Erfworld http://www.erfworld.com/ is set within a war game except the pieces are sentient with feelings, goals, attitudes, and fates. The central character however has been called from our world... A suitable punishment for a life wasted playing war games perhaps? Publication has been a erratic in the past, but now something new is posted every Monday, Wednesday,and Friday. Watch out for the sound effects -- these are usually puns, as are place names, characters, etc.

Girl Genius http://www.girlgeniusonline.com/comic.php is a glorious "gas lamp fantasy" full of romance, mad science, and adventure. Currently posts late on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. The plot is wild but the drawings are good. The world of Sparks and Clanks is well imagined and there are several mysteries to be solved. 

Spiked Math http://spikedmath.com/ posts at random making jokes about mathematics.

Abstruse Goose http://abstrusegoose.com/ has a similar style to XKCD but is a younger and gentler view of the world. It posts every week or so.

Dork Tower http://www.dorktower.com/ parodies the various types of fanatical gamer.  

Piled Higher and Deeper http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/comics.php is a brilliant and wise description of academic life at a research university. Jorge nails it.   

The Order of the Stick http://www.giantitp.com/comics/ootscast.html is a parody of life inside a dungeons-and-dragons type game.  Our heroic band of adventurers are stick figures -- whence comes the name of the strip. 

Dresden Kodak http://dresdencodak.com/ is the best drawn but most erratic of all these comics. The picaresque tale of Kim Ross is weird with story arcs that last for years. I want to play "Dungeons and Discourses"!

The ironic Elf Only Inn http://www.elfonlyinn.net/d/20020523.html has frozen... But was set in a chat room imagined as an inn for elves except that most visitors are not into playing elves. 

User Friendly http://www.userfriendly.org/cartoons/archives/ was a favorite comic until it started to repeat. It describes in humorous form life in a small computer  company. 

I also visit the following non-comic: Futility Closet http://www.futilitycloset.com/ most days. A compendium of amusements!

What is your Internet comic addiction?

A plan for blogging my memoirs

I used http://www.cortthinking.com/cort/6/tec-pisco

to come up with a plan. In the "Input" stage I realised that there are a lot of unknowns -- how much time I will have for example will vary depending the time spent preparing the house for sale and house hunting. Another factor is my inability to spell or type accurately. I may have to use my laptop to draft postings and upload them later.

I will be posting articles here for one month and then review what I have. I  will use the iPod app to draft and post. I will have to proof read and revise before I post as a result.

Topics: software, teaching, comics, systems, mathematics, research, science fiction, quotations, ... Plus thoughts on the blogging process itself -- meta. Must include formats like link lists, "how tos", "best practices", and FAQs...

Retired -- but how to write my memoirs?

Another step towards retirement

On Tuesday I (along with other retirees) got a special resolution read out in the CSUSB Faculty Senate:

Resolution in Appreciation of Professor Richard Botting, Founding Chair of Department of Computer Science (now the School of Computer Science and Engineering) on the Occasion of His Retirement

Whereas: Professor Richard Botting joined the then School of Natural Sciences to found a Department of Computer Science in 1982; and

Whereas: Dr. Botting guided the nascent Department through the formative years, acquiring hardware, software, designing and implementing a curriculum, and recruiting Faculty colleagues; and

Whereas: Dr. Richard Botting has been a teacher, mentor, and scholar, with his touch upon almost all students who matriculated to the then Department and now School of Computer Science and Engineering; and

Whereas: He had the vision to enable the first major external research and equipment grants into the Department; and

Whereas: He has been a leading force in the continuous design of both the undergraduate and graduate curriculum; and

Whereas: He has maintained active research and scholarship, having published his 80^th review in Computing Reviews of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) ; and

Whereas: Dick has often appeared in his kilt and red wig at the annual School recognition picnic; then let it be

Resolved: That the Faculty Senate of CSUSB thereby respectfully and appreciatively acknowledges Professor Richard Botting’s service to our region’s computer science and technology professionals, to the School of Computer Science and Engineering that he founded, to the College of Natural Sciences, and to the University as a whole; and be it further

Resolved: That the Faculty Senate wishes Professor Botting a well-deserved and fulfilling retirement with good health and good times as he spends more time with his wife Patricia in their pursuit of the arts and beaches of Southern California;. He will be greatly missed as a respected professor by his many friends and colleagues here at CSUSB.

About this blog

As I crept towards retirement, I moved my blogging from my employer's server to here. I'm hoping to lose the need to write entries in ASCII using vi and my UNIX command line skills and scripts to render and post HTML.

As to the title... I am a fan of Jerome K Jerome who wrote the "Idle Thoughts of an Idle Fellow" column back in the beginning of the 20th century/end of the 19th.